SynergySolutions · Pernambuco, Brazil · February 2026

Agrivoltaic Systems
with Battery Storage
in Northeast Brazil

Scenarios
800 · 2,000 · 5,000 units

Project Horizon
25 years

Exchange Rate
1 USD = 5.20 BRL

Prepared by
C. A. Pimentel de Abreu

Best IRR
15.6%
Scenario C · ACL model
↑ +2.5pp with BESS
Peak 25yr NPV
R$52M
USD 10.0M · Scenario C
ACL vs ACR +35%
Fastest Payback
6.4y
Scenario C · with BESS
−1.4y vs no-BESS
LCOE Floor
R$0.29
per kWh · Scenario C
vs R$1.00 grid tariff
CO₂ Avoided
9,000
tonnes/year · Sc. C
206K t cumulative
01 The Economies of Scale Effect IRR and LCOE across three scenarios · with and without BESS
Project IRR (%) — Scenario Scale vs BESS Integration
Scale outperforms technology: Growing from 800 to 5,000 units adds +3.5 pp to IRR — equivalent to the entire BESS premium at small scale. Both levers compound each other at Scenario C.
LCOE Breakdown — Where the Cost Lives (BRL/kWh)
LCOE vs tariff gap: At Scenario C, LCOE drops to R$0.29/kWh — 71% below the residential tariff of R$1.00/kWh. Even under a 20% tariff cut, the project remains highly profitable.
02 The Battery Arbitrage Engine Daily power flow and BESS value stack — Scenario C
Daily Power Flow — Charge (solar peak) vs Discharge (evening peak)
The arbitrage window: BESS charges at R$0.60/kWh effective value during solar peak; discharges at R$0.95–1.15/kWh during 18:00–21:00 demand peak. At 92% RTE, net margin ≈ R$0.30–0.48/kWh cycled daily.
Annual BESS Value Stack
ToU Arbitrage
R$450K
Self-cons opt.
R$352K
Peak shaving
R$234K
Ancillary svc
R$81K
Total BESS revenue: R$1.12M/yr · Sc. C
BESS ROI: 11.5% standalone
OPTIMAL SIZING
2.5 hours
C/2.5 rate · matched to 18:00–21:00 peak
03 Cash Flow Trajectories & Breakeven 20-year cumulative projection · all scenarios · ACL model
Cumulative Net Cash Flow (BRL Million) — Post-tax, post-debt-service
The Year-14 cliff: When debt service ends, annual net cash flow jumps +66% in Scenario C (R$11.3M → R$18.8M/year). Post-debt years 15–25 generate 58% of all equity returns, despite being only 44% of the project lifetime.
04 Revenue Architecture & Market Model Multi-stream composition and ACR vs ACL premium
Revenue Stream Composition — Scenario C, Year 1
Diversification hedge: Agricultural (14%) and BESS arbitrage (12%) revenues are structurally uncorrelated to energy tariff risk — buffering the portfolio against regulatory pressure.
ACL vs ACR — Key Financial KPIs Comparison · Scenario C
Market model premium: ACL captures R$0.22–0.35/kWh vs R$0.087–0.142/kWh in ACR auctions — a 55–150% premium translating to R$13.6M additional NPV over the project lifetime.
05 Risk & Sensitivity Landscape NPV tornado · Scenario B ACL · Base NPV = R$24.8M
Risk Matrix · Probability vs Impact
P10 Irradiance
Tariff Cut >20%
BESS Failure
FX Depreciation
CAPEX Overrun
Crop Failure
Module Degradation
Policy Reversal
Low Medium High
X: probability · Y: financial impact
IRR Floor — Worst-case stress test
10.4%
Under tariff −20% + P10 irradiance combined stress. Every single-variable sensitivity maintains IRR above cost of equity (10%). The project has no scenario where it becomes unviable.
NPV Sensitivity Tornado — ±20% Variation on Each Variable (BRL M)
Dominant driver: Energy tariff sensitivity is 2.4× greater than CAPEX overrun. Securing long-term PPAs or ACL contracts early is the single most impactful risk mitigation action available.
06 Agrivoltaic & ESG Performance Food · energy · water nexus — crops, carbon and land productivity
Crop Revenue Range (BRL/ha/yr) — Agrivoltaic Conditions
Optimal mix: 40% palma (drought-proof perennial) + 30% cowpea + 20% sesame (export premium) + 10% melon (seasonal spike). Balances water efficiency with revenue stability.
Cumulative CO₂ Avoided — 25-Year Horizon
Carbon upside: Scenario C avoids 206,000 t CO₂ over 25 years — latent value of R$85.8M at USD 8/tCO₂ VCS pricing. Currently captured at only R$373K/yr; significant upside as carbon markets mature.
Agrivoltaic vs Mono-Use — Multi-Dimension Productivity
LER = 1.44: Agrivoltaic deployment on 50.6 ha produces the equivalent of 72.9 ha of separate solar + agriculture — a 44% land productivity premium over single-use development.
07 20-Year Revenue Architecture Scenario C ACL — annual cash streams stacked vs outflows
Annual Revenue Streams vs Outflows (BRL Million/year) — The debt cliff at Year 14 is clearly visible
Year-14 structural break: Debt service of R$6.82M/year drops to zero, creating an immediate +66% jump in net cash flow. This inflection point is the central investment thesis: patient equity is richly rewarded post-debt.